Note on Global Fund Programmatic Results

19 September 2019

The Global Fund Results Report 2019 presents selected programmatic results (e.g., people on antiretroviral therapy, people with TB treated, mosquito nets distributed) achieved by supported programs in 2018. The full, aggregated 2018 and 2017 annual results are in our document: 

  • Results Report 2019 Methodology Annex 1
    download in English

Country-specific results are available on our Data Explorer site with the most up-to date data, which might differ from the previously published annual reports due to retroactive updates and corrections. 

To measure results and impact, the Global Fund uses the official disease burden and impact estimates developed and published by our technical partners, including WHO, UNAIDS, Stop TB and the RBM Partnership to End Malaria. We do not create our own disease burden and impact estimates. The disease burden and impact numbers are based on the latest available data from UNAIDS and WHO; in the Results Report 2019, data for HIV are as of 2018, but data for TB and malaria are as of 2016 or 2017, as indicated, as the 2018 data from WHO was not yet available at the time of publication. 

The Global Fund’s results (nets distributed, people on ARVs, etc.) are calculated using the data for HIV, TB and malaria in countries where we invest in a given year. This means our results are different from the global figures presented in the WHO and UNAIDS reports, which include all data from all countries worldwide. 

The Global Fund reports full national results for the countries where we invest, rather than reporting solely on the specific projects or interventions we fund. This reflects a core principle of the Global Fund: that we support national health programs and strategies to achieve national goals. By reporting full national results, we can show the impact of the programs we support together with all partners and demonstrate where countries are on the trajectory toward achieving 2030 targets to end the epidemics. 

The “lives saved” figure in the Global Fund’s results is calculated in conjunction with technical partners using the most advanced modeling methods currently available, yielding sophisticated estimates, not scientifically exact figures. 

The number of lives saved in a given country in a particular year is estimated by subtracting the actual number of deaths from the number of deaths that would have occurred in a scenario where key disease interventions did not take place. For example, consider a country in which there is a TB program that provides treatment to people with TB and in one year, 1,000 people diagnosed with TB were treated and 100 people died of TB. If in that same country, studies showed that the probability of dying with TB was 70%, it would be reasonable to assume that 700 people would have died had there not be the availability of treatment for TB. Therefore, the estimate of the impact of the treatment intervention in this case would be 600 lives saved. 

The same principle is used in all countries and for all diseases, using the best available estimates of intervention effectiveness and epidemiology. 

2018 marks the first year in the 2018-2020 grant implementation cycle. The Country Coordinating Mechanism – the committee of local community, government and health experts that develops and guides Global Fund-supported programs in a country – adapts performance framework agreements for each new grant cycle, as part of the tailoring and targeting of Global Fund investments to maximize impact and build on lessons learned from the previous cycle. As the associated indicators identified by the CCMs can significantly change from one cycle to the next, some 2018 results are not directly comparable to the results of the previous year. This is particularly notable for HIV prevention services, which are an aggregation of a range of services determined by countries and tracked at national or subnational level. For a full explanation of the Global Fund’s reporting methodology, visit the Results Methodology page.